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Pradejón vs Varea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Pradejón
Pradejón
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Varea
Varea
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 27Polideportivo Municipal Pradejón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Pradejón26%
×Draw25%
Varea49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pradejón
1.08
Varea
1.60

Varea creates 48% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 108 away

creates per match

Pradejón
1.20
Varea
1.81

allows per match

Pradejón
1.39
Varea
0.97

finishing

Pradejón+0.00on par
Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pradejón ↓

Varea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pradejón or draw
51%
Pradejón or Varea
75%
Draw or Varea
74%

Winning margin

Pradejón wins by 2+
10%
Varea wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Pradejón 1+ goals
66%
Pradejón 2+ goals
29%
Pradejón 3+ goals
10%
Varea 1+ goals
80%
Varea 2+ goals
47%
Varea 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Pradejón (draw refunded)
34%
Varea (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pradejón at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 46 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pradejón attack 1.20 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Varea attack 1.81 + Pradejón defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pradejón scores more
26%
level
25%
Varea scores more
49%

Varea at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Pradejón 0–5 Varea

Varea beat Pradejón 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Pradejón in Pradejón.