Pradejón 1–1 Peña Balsamaiso: Result & Stats

Pradejón

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Peña Balsamaiso

12/21/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 15Polideportivo Municipal Pradejón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Pradejón46%

×Draw25%

Peña Balsamaiso29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PradejónExpected goals in this matchPeña Balsamaiso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.18

Pradejón

1.55

Peña Balsamaiso

1.18

Pradejón creates 31% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 66 away

1.20

creates per match

0.97

1.39

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Pradejón

1.20

Peña Balsamaiso

0.97

allows per match

Pradejón

1.39

Peña Balsamaiso

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pradejón+0.00on par

Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pradejón ↓

Peña Balsamaiso →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pradejón or draw

71%

Pradejón or Peña Balsamaiso

75%

Draw or Peña Balsamaiso

54%

Winning margin

Pradejón wins by 2+

23%

Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pradejón 1+ goals

79%

Pradejón 2+ goals

46%

Pradejón 3+ goals

20%

Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals

69%

Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals

33%

Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pradejón (draw refunded)

61%

Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pradejón at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 46 matches

Peña Balsamaiso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pradejón attack 1.20 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.55

Peña Balsamaiso attack 0.97 + Pradejón defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pradejón scores more

46%

level

25%

Peña Balsamaiso scores more

29%

Pradejón at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pradejón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff