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Pradejón vs Calahorra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Pradejón
Pradejón
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Calahorra II
Calahorra II
11/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 4Polideportivo Municipal Pradejón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Pradejón32%
×Draw26%
Calahorra II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pradejón
1.21
Calahorra II
1.44

Calahorra II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 90 away

creates per match

Pradejón
1.20
Calahorra II
1.48

allows per match

Pradejón
1.39
Calahorra II
1.23

finishing

Pradejón+0.00on par
Calahorra II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pradejón ↓

Calahorra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pradejón or draw
58%
Pradejón or Calahorra II
74%
Draw or Calahorra II
68%

Winning margin

Pradejón wins by 2+
13%
Calahorra II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Pradejón 1+ goals
70%
Pradejón 2+ goals
34%
Pradejón 3+ goals
12%
Calahorra II 1+ goals
76%
Calahorra II 2+ goals
42%
Calahorra II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pradejón (draw refunded)
43%
Calahorra II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pradejón at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 46 matches

Calahorra II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pradejón attack 1.20 + Calahorra II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Calahorra II attack 1.48 + Pradejón defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pradejón scores more
32%
level
26%
Calahorra II scores more
42%

Calahorra II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Calahorra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Pradejón 1–1 Calahorra II

Pradejón and Calahorra II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Pradejón in Pradejón.