Pradejón 1–1 Alfaro: Result & Stats

Pradejón

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Alfaro

11/1/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 11Polideportivo Municipal Pradejón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Pradejón28%

×Draw25%

Alfaro47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PradejónExpected goals in this matchAlfaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.59

Pradejón

1.17

Alfaro

1.59

Alfaro creates 36% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 59 away

1.20

creates per match

1.80

1.39

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Pradejón

1.20

Alfaro

1.80

allows per match

Pradejón

1.39

Alfaro

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pradejón+0.00on par

Alfaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pradejón ↓

Alfaro →

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pradejón or draw

53%

Pradejón or Alfaro

75%

Draw or Alfaro

72%

Winning margin

Pradejón wins by 2+

11%

Alfaro wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Pradejón 1+ goals

69%

Pradejón 2+ goals

33%

Pradejón 3+ goals

11%

Alfaro 1+ goals

80%

Alfaro 2+ goals

47%

Alfaro 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Pradejón (draw refunded)

37%

Alfaro (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pradejón at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 46 matches

Alfaro away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pradejón attack 1.20 + Alfaro defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Alfaro attack 1.80 + Pradejón defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pradejón scores more

28%

level

25%

Alfaro scores more

47%

Alfaro at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff