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Prachuap vs Port FC — League Cup 2021

Prachuap
Prachuap
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Port FC
Port FCadvanced
3/13/2024League CupLeague Cup · Round of 16Sam Ao Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Prachuap10%
×Draw17%
Port FC73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prachuap
0.75
Port FC
2.38

Port FC creates 217% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Prachuap
0.50
Port FC
2.50

allows per match

Prachuap
2.25
Port FC
1.00

finishing

Prachuap+0.00on par
Port FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prachuap ↓

Port FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–111%
0–213%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Prachuap or draw
27%
Prachuap or Port FC
83%
Draw or Port FC
90%

Winning margin

Prachuap wins by 2+
3%
Port FC wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Prachuap 1+ goals
53%
Prachuap 2+ goals
17%
Prachuap 3+ goals
4%
Port FC 1+ goals
91%
Port FC 2+ goals
68%
Port FC 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Prachuap (draw refunded)
12%
Port FC (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prachuap at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Port FC away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prachuap attack 0.50 + Port FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Port FC attack 2.50 + Prachuap defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Prachuap scores more
10%
level
17%
Port FC scores more
73%

Port FC at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Port FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Prachuap 0–2 Port FC

Port FC beat Prachuap 2-0 in League Cup on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sam Ao Stadium in Prachuap Khiri Khan.