Prachuap 2–1 Lamphun Warrior: Result & Stats

Prachuap

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Lamphun Warrior

Chrigor 45+1'

S. Tiatrakul 26'

Victor Cardozo 90+9'

4/5/2025

League #296 · Round 28Sam Ao Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Prachuap61%

×Draw20%

Lamphun Warrior18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrachuapExpected goals in this matchLamphun Warrior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.10

Prachuap

2.17

Lamphun Warrior

1.10

Prachuap creates 97% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.75

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Prachuap

1.75

Lamphun Warrior

1.20

allows per match

Prachuap

1.00

Lamphun Warrior

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prachuap+0.00on par

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prachuap ↓

Lamphun Warrior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Prachuap or draw

82%

Prachuap or Lamphun Warrior

80%

Draw or Lamphun Warrior

39%

Winning margin

Prachuap wins by 2+

38%

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Prachuap 1+ goals

89%

Prachuap 2+ goals

64%

Prachuap 3+ goals

36%

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals

67%

Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals

30%

Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Prachuap (draw refunded)

77%

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prachuap at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prachuap attack 1.75 + Lamphun Warrior defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.17

Lamphun Warrior attack 1.20 + Prachuap defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Prachuap scores more

61%

level

20%

Lamphun Warrior scores more

18%

Prachuap at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Prachuap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

P. Jantum

Prachuap · M

7.9

Match Events

26'

S. Tiatrakul

36'

Todsapol Lated

45+1'

Chrigor↳ Tauã

46'

Negueba← A. Pumwiset

46'

Fabinho← Júnior Batista

62'

Phanthamit Praphanth

62'

A. Chegini← P. Praphanth

62'

K. Thawornsak← C. Tongkiri

64'

Phon-Ek Jensen

72'

Soponwit RakyartCard upgrade

75'

Soponwit Rakyart

76'

T. Khotrsupho← O. Kekkonen

76'

W. Moonwong← S. Singmui

78'

R. Songsangchan← P. Jantum

88'

P. Tanthatemee← Tauã

88'

P. Akkratum← S. Tiatrakul

90+5'

Jirapan Phasukihan

90+9'

Victor Cardozo↳ Negueba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrachuapLamphun

Overview

49%Possession51%

6Total Shots19

5Corners11

14Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots19

2On Target9

2Off Target5

2Blocked5

3Inside Box11

3Outside Box8

Passing

49%Possession51%

313Total Passes317

246Accurate Passes241

79%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

8Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1