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Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior — FA Cup 2018

Prachuap
Prachuap
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
2/28/2024FA CupFA Cup · Round of 16Sam Ao Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Prachuap33%
×Draw25%
Lamphun Warrior42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prachuap
1.29
Lamphun Warrior
1.50

Lamphun Warrior creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Prachuap
1.86
Lamphun Warrior
2.00

allows per match

Prachuap
1.00
Lamphun Warrior
0.73

finishing

Prachuap+0.00on par
Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prachuap ↓

Lamphun Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Prachuap or draw
58%
Prachuap or Lamphun Warrior
75%
Draw or Lamphun Warrior
67%

Winning margin

Prachuap wins by 2+
14%
Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Prachuap 1+ goals
72%
Prachuap 2+ goals
37%
Prachuap 3+ goals
14%
Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
78%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
44%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Prachuap (draw refunded)
44%
Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prachuap at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prachuap attack 1.86 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.29

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.00 + Prachuap defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Prachuap scores more
33%
level
25%
Lamphun Warrior scores more
42%

Lamphun Warrior at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior

Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in FA Cup on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Sam Ao Stadium in Prachuap Khiri Khan.