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Prachinburi City vs Sukhothai FC — FA Cup 2018

Prachinburi City
Prachinburi City
FT
0 – 1
Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
5/1/2019FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Prachinburi City27%
×Draw23%
Sukhothai FC50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prachinburi City
1.23
Sukhothai FC
1.77

Sukhothai FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Prachinburi City
1.20
Sukhothai FC
0.75

allows per match

Prachinburi City
2.80
Sukhothai FC
1.25

finishing

Prachinburi City+0.00on par
Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prachinburi City ↓

Sukhothai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Prachinburi City or draw
50%
Prachinburi City or Sukhothai FC
77%
Draw or Sukhothai FC
73%

Winning margin

Prachinburi City wins by 2+
11%
Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Prachinburi City 1+ goals
71%
Prachinburi City 2+ goals
35%
Prachinburi City 3+ goals
13%
Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
83%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
53%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Prachinburi City (draw refunded)
35%
Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prachinburi City at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Sukhothai FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prachinburi City attack 1.20 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sukhothai FC attack 0.75 + Prachinburi City defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Prachinburi City scores more
27%
level
23%
Sukhothai FC scores more
50%

Sukhothai FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Prachinburi City 0–1 Sukhothai FC

Sukhothai FC beat Prachinburi City 1-0 in FA Cup on May 1, 2019.