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Prachinburi City vs Samut Songkhram — FA Cup 2018

Prachinburi City
Prachinburi City
FT
1 – 0
Samut Songkhram
Samut Songkhram
3/27/2019FA CupFA Cup · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Prachinburi City76%
×Draw12%
Samut Songkhram12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prachinburi City
3.98
Samut Songkhram
1.65

Prachinburi City creates 141% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Prachinburi City
1.20
Samut Songkhram
0.50

allows per match

Prachinburi City
2.80
Samut Songkhram
6.75

finishing

Prachinburi City+0.00on par
Samut Songkhram+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prachinburi City ↓

Samut Songkhram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

Prachinburi City or draw
88%
Prachinburi City or Samut Songkhram
88%
Draw or Samut Songkhram
24%

Winning margin

Prachinburi City wins by 2+
59%
Samut Songkhram wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Prachinburi City 1+ goals
98%
Prachinburi City 2+ goals
90%
Prachinburi City 3+ goals
73%
Samut Songkhram 1+ goals
81%
Samut Songkhram 2+ goals
49%
Samut Songkhram 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Prachinburi City (draw refunded)
86%
Samut Songkhram (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prachinburi City at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Samut Songkhram away — creates 0.50, concedes 6.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prachinburi City attack 1.20 + Samut Songkhram defence 6.75 → ÷2 → 3.98

Samut Songkhram attack 0.50 + Prachinburi City defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Prachinburi City scores more
76%
level
12%
Samut Songkhram scores more
12%

Prachinburi City at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Prachinburi City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prachinburi City vs Samut Songkhram

Prachinburi City beat Samut Songkhram 1-0 in FA Cup on March 27, 2019.