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Prachinburi City vs Lamphun Warrior — FA Cup 2018

Prachinburi City
Prachinburi City
FT
0 – 8
Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
10/27/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundPrachinburi Central Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Prachinburi City13%
×Draw18%
Lamphun Warrior69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prachinburi City
0.96
Lamphun Warrior
2.40

Lamphun Warrior creates 150% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Prachinburi City
1.20
Lamphun Warrior
2.00

allows per match

Prachinburi City
2.80
Lamphun Warrior
0.73

finishing

Prachinburi City+0.00on par
Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prachinburi City ↓

Lamphun Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Prachinburi City or draw
31%
Prachinburi City or Lamphun Warrior
82%
Draw or Lamphun Warrior
87%

Winning margin

Prachinburi City wins by 2+
4%
Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Prachinburi City 1+ goals
62%
Prachinburi City 2+ goals
25%
Prachinburi City 3+ goals
7%
Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
91%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
69%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Prachinburi City (draw refunded)
16%
Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prachinburi City at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prachinburi City attack 1.20 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.96

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.00 + Prachinburi City defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Prachinburi City scores more
13%
level
18%
Lamphun Warrior scores more
69%

Lamphun Warrior at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prachinburi City vs Lamphun Warrior

Lamphun Warrior beat Prachinburi City 8-0 in FA Cup on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Prachinburi Central Sports Stadium in Prachinburi.