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Prachinburi City vs Krabi FC — FA Cup 2018

Prachinburi City
Prachinburi City
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Krabi FC
Krabi FC
11/2/2022FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundPrachinburi Central Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Prachinburi City32%
×Draw22%
Krabi FC47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prachinburi City
1.60
Krabi FC
1.98

Krabi FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Prachinburi City
1.20
Krabi FC
1.17

allows per match

Prachinburi City
2.80
Krabi FC
2.00

finishing

Prachinburi City+0.00on par
Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prachinburi City ↓

Krabi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Prachinburi City or draw
53%
Prachinburi City or Krabi FC
78%
Draw or Krabi FC
68%

Winning margin

Prachinburi City wins by 2+
15%
Krabi FC wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Prachinburi City 1+ goals
80%
Prachinburi City 2+ goals
47%
Prachinburi City 3+ goals
22%
Krabi FC 1+ goals
86%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
59%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Prachinburi City (draw refunded)
40%
Krabi FC (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prachinburi City at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prachinburi City attack 1.20 + Krabi FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Krabi FC attack 1.17 + Prachinburi City defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Prachinburi City scores more
32%
level
22%
Krabi FC scores more
47%

Krabi FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Krabi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prachinburi City vs Krabi FC

Prachinburi City beat Krabi FC 4-2 in FA Cup on November 2, 2022.

The match was played at Prachinburi Central Sports Stadium in Prachinburi.