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PPJ vs TiPS — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

PPJ
PPJ
FT
8 – 5
HT: 6 – 3
TiPS
TiPS
10/7/2023Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 22Jätkäsaari Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

PPJ64%
×Draw17%
TiPS18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PPJ
2.75
TiPS
1.44

PPJ creates 91% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 11 away

creates per match

PPJ
2.05
TiPS
1.00

allows per match

PPJ
1.89
TiPS
3.45

finishing

PPJ+0.00on par
TiPS+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PPJ ↓

TiPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

PPJ or draw
82%
PPJ or TiPS
83%
Draw or TiPS
36%

Winning margin

PPJ wins by 2+
44%
TiPS wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

PPJ 1+ goals
93%
PPJ 2+ goals
75%
PPJ 3+ goals
51%
TiPS 1+ goals
76%
TiPS 2+ goals
42%
TiPS 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

PPJ (draw refunded)
78%
TiPS (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PPJ at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

TiPS away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PPJ attack 2.05 + TiPS defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.75

TiPS attack 1.00 + PPJ defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

PPJ scores more
64%
level
17%
TiPS scores more
18%

PPJ at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "PPJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: PPJ 8–5 TiPS

PPJ beat TiPS 8-5 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Jätkäsaari Tekonurmi in Helsinki.