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PPJ vs HJS Akatemia — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2026

PPJ
PPJ
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
HJS Akatemia
HJS Akatemia
J. Hanninen 48'
A. Lehtomaki 80'
O. Lehtonen 65'
7/10/2025Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 12Jätkäsaari Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

PPJ52%
×Draw20%
HJS Akatemia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PPJ
2.43
HJS Akatemia
1.78

PPJ creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 80 away

creates per match

PPJ
3.11
HJS Akatemia
1.45

allows per match

PPJ
2.11
HJS Akatemia
1.75

finishing

PPJ+0.00on par
HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PPJ ↓

HJS Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

PPJ or draw
72%
PPJ or HJS Akatemia
80%
Draw or HJS Akatemia
48%

Winning margin

PPJ wins by 2+
32%
HJS Akatemia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

PPJ 1+ goals
91%
PPJ 2+ goals
69%
PPJ 3+ goals
43%
HJS Akatemia 1+ goals
83%
HJS Akatemia 2+ goals
53%
HJS Akatemia 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

PPJ (draw refunded)
65%
HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PPJ at home — creates 3.11, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

HJS Akatemia away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PPJ attack 3.11 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.43

HJS Akatemia attack 1.45 + PPJ defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

PPJ scores more
52%
level
20%
HJS Akatemia scores more
28%

PPJ at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "PPJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
J. Hakola
42'
R. Turkulainen
48'
J. Hanninen
61'
J. Thusberg← J. Thusberg
61'
A. Ikonen← A. Ikonen
65'
O. Lehtonen
69'
O. Salonen← O. Salonen
72'
E. Auvinen
80'
A. Lehtomaki← A. Kannisto
80'
A. Lehtomaki
81'
T. Supperi
87'
E. Kajanto← E. Kajanto
87'
T. Supperi← T. Supperi
88'
A. Kilpelainen
88'
F. Carlberg← F. Carlberg
88'
R. Ouazine← R. Ouazine
89'
L. Meltoranta

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PPJ vs HJS Akatemia

HJS Akatemia beat PPJ 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on July 10, 2025.

Goals: J. Hanninen (48'), O. Lehtonen (65'), A. Lehtomaki (80').

The match was played at Jätkäsaari Tekonurmi in Helsinki.