Pozuelo Alarcón 1–1 Ursaria: Result & Stats

Pozuelo Alarcón

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ursaria

12/12/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 18Estadio Valle de las Cañas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Pozuelo Alarcón32%

×Draw28%

Ursaria41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pozuelo AlarcónExpected goals in this matchUrsaria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.29

Pozuelo Alarcón

1.11

Ursaria

1.29

Ursaria creates 16% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 35 away

1.32

creates per match

1.37

1.22

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Pozuelo Alarcón

1.32

Ursaria

1.37

allows per match

Pozuelo Alarcón

1.22

Ursaria

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par

Ursaria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozuelo Alarcón ↓

Ursaria →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pozuelo Alarcón or draw

59%

Pozuelo Alarcón or Ursaria

72%

Draw or Ursaria

68%

Winning margin

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+

13%

Ursaria wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals

67%

Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals

30%

Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals

10%

Ursaria 1+ goals

72%

Ursaria 2+ goals

37%

Ursaria 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)

44%

Ursaria (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pozuelo Alarcón at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 97 matches

Ursaria away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 1.32 + Ursaria defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.11

Ursaria attack 1.37 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more

32%

level

28%

Ursaria scores more

41%

Ursaria at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ursaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff