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Pozuelo Alarcón vs Tres Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
10/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Estadio Valle de las Cañas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Pozuelo Alarcón47%
×Draw25%
Tres Cantos28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.54
Tres Cantos
1.13

Pozuelo Alarcón creates 36% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 71 away

creates per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.32
Tres Cantos
1.03

allows per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.22
Tres Cantos
1.75

finishing

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par
Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozuelo Alarcón ↓

Tres Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pozuelo Alarcón or draw
72%
Pozuelo Alarcón or Tres Cantos
75%
Draw or Tres Cantos
53%

Winning margin

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
24%
Tres Cantos wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
79%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
45%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
20%
Tres Cantos 1+ goals
68%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
31%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
63%
Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozuelo Alarcón at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 97 matches

Tres Cantos away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.75 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 1.32 + Tres Cantos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tres Cantos attack 1.03 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
47%
level
25%
Tres Cantos scores more
28%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pozuelo Alarcón vs Tres Cantos

Pozuelo Alarcón beat Tres Cantos 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Valle de las Cañas in Pozuelo de Alarcón.