Pozuelo Alarcón 0–1 Moratalaz: Result & Stats

Pozuelo Alarcón

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Moratalaz

2/17/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Estadio Valle de las Cañas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Pozuelo Alarcón43%

×Draw26%

Moratalaz31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pozuelo AlarcónExpected goals in this matchMoratalaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.16

Pozuelo Alarcón

1.43

Moratalaz

1.16

Pozuelo Alarcón creates 23% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 48 away

1.32

creates per match

1.10

1.22

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Pozuelo Alarcón

1.32

Moratalaz

1.10

allows per match

Pozuelo Alarcón

1.22

Moratalaz

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par

Moratalaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozuelo Alarcón ↓

Moratalaz →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Pozuelo Alarcón or draw

69%

Pozuelo Alarcón or Moratalaz

74%

Draw or Moratalaz

57%

Winning margin

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+

21%

Moratalaz wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals

76%

Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals

42%

Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals

17%

Moratalaz 1+ goals

69%

Moratalaz 2+ goals

32%

Moratalaz 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)

59%

Moratalaz (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pozuelo Alarcón at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 97 matches

Moratalaz away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 1.32 + Moratalaz defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Moratalaz attack 1.10 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more

43%

level

26%

Moratalaz scores more

31%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pozuelo Alarcón vs Moratalaz

Moratalaz beat Pozuelo Alarcón 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Valle de las Cañas in Pozuelo de Alarcón.

Pozuelo Alarcón vs Moratalaz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Pozuelo Alarcón vs Moratalaz