Pozuelo Alarcón 3–1 Flat Earth: Result & Stats

Pozuelo Alarcón

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Flat Earth

3/7/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 19Estadio Valle de las Cañas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Pozuelo Alarcón42%

×Draw28%

Flat Earth30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pozuelo AlarcónExpected goals in this matchFlat Earth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.02

Pozuelo Alarcón

1.27

Flat Earth

1.02

Pozuelo Alarcón creates 25% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 28 away

1.32

creates per match

0.82

1.22

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Pozuelo Alarcón

1.32

Flat Earth

0.82

allows per match

Pozuelo Alarcón

1.22

Flat Earth

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par

Flat Earth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozuelo Alarcón ↓

Flat Earth →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Pozuelo Alarcón or draw

70%

Pozuelo Alarcón or Flat Earth

72%

Draw or Flat Earth

58%

Winning margin

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+

19%

Flat Earth wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals

72%

Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals

36%

Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals

14%

Flat Earth 1+ goals

64%

Flat Earth 2+ goals

27%

Flat Earth 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)

59%

Flat Earth (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pozuelo Alarcón at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 97 matches

Flat Earth away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 1.32 + Flat Earth defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Flat Earth attack 0.82 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more

42%

level

28%

Flat Earth scores more

30%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pozuelo Alarcón vs Flat Earth

Pozuelo Alarcón beat Flat Earth 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Valle de las Cañas in Pozuelo de Alarcón.

Pozuelo Alarcón vs Flat Earth — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Pozuelo Alarcón vs Flat Earth