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Pozuelo Alarcón vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
CANC
00:00
El Álamo
El Álamo
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 29Estadio Valle de las Cañas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Pozuelo Alarcón50%
×Draw25%
El Álamo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.58
El Álamo
1.03

Pozuelo Alarcón creates 53% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 47 away

creates per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.32
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.22
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozuelo Alarcón ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pozuelo Alarcón or draw
75%
Pozuelo Alarcón or El Álamo
75%
Draw or El Álamo
50%

Winning margin

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
26%
El Álamo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
79%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
47%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
21%
El Álamo 1+ goals
64%
El Álamo 2+ goals
28%
El Álamo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
67%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozuelo Alarcón at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 97 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 1.32 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
50%
level
25%
El Álamo scores more
25%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Pozuelo Alarcón host El Álamo

March 15, 2020: Pozuelo Alarcón take on El Álamo in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Pozuelo Alarcón host El Álamo at Estadio Valle de las Cañas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.