Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pozuelo Alarcón vs Complutense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Complutense
Complutense
9/15/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3Estadio Valle de las Cañas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Pozuelo Alarcón49%
×Draw28%
Complutense23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.37
Complutense
0.84

Pozuelo Alarcón creates 63% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 36 away

creates per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.32
Complutense
0.47

allows per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.22
Complutense
1.42

finishing

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par
Complutense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozuelo Alarcón ↓

Complutense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Pozuelo Alarcón or draw
77%
Pozuelo Alarcón or Complutense
72%
Draw or Complutense
51%

Winning margin

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
24%
Complutense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
75%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
40%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
16%
Complutense 1+ goals
57%
Complutense 2+ goals
21%
Complutense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
68%
Complutense (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozuelo Alarcón at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 97 matches

Complutense away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 1.32 + Complutense defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.37

Complutense attack 0.47 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
49%
level
28%
Complutense scores more
23%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Pozuelo Alarcón 1–0 Complutense

Pozuelo Alarcón beat Complutense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Valle de las Cañas in Pozuelo de Alarcón.