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Pozuelo Alarcón vs Canillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Canillas
Canillas
10/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 6Estadio Valle de las Cañas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Pozuelo Alarcón48%
×Draw25%
Canillas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.59
Canillas
1.13

Pozuelo Alarcón creates 41% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 49 away

creates per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.32
Canillas
1.04

allows per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.22
Canillas
1.86

finishing

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par
Canillas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozuelo Alarcón ↓

Canillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pozuelo Alarcón or draw
73%
Pozuelo Alarcón or Canillas
75%
Draw or Canillas
52%

Winning margin

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
25%
Canillas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
80%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
47%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
21%
Canillas 1+ goals
68%
Canillas 2+ goals
31%
Canillas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
64%
Canillas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozuelo Alarcón at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 97 matches

Canillas away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.86 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 1.32 + Canillas defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.59

Canillas attack 1.04 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
48%
level
25%
Canillas scores more
27%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Pozuelo Alarcón 2–1 Canillas

Pozuelo Alarcón beat Canillas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Valle de las Cañas in Pozuelo de Alarcón.