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Pozoblanco vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Pozoblanco
Pozoblanco
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
La Palma
La Palma
Arnau Roca 36'
A. Diawara 14'
Diego Vargas 26' (pen)
2/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 22Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Pozoblanco51%
×Draw25%
La Palma24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozoblanco
1.56
La Palma
0.97

Pozoblanco creates 61% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 48 away

creates per match

Pozoblanco
1.45
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Pozoblanco
1.05
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Pozoblanco+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozoblanco ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pozoblanco or draw
76%
Pozoblanco or La Palma
75%
Draw or La Palma
49%

Winning margin

Pozoblanco wins by 2+
26%
La Palma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pozoblanco 1+ goals
79%
Pozoblanco 2+ goals
46%
Pozoblanco 3+ goals
21%
La Palma 1+ goals
62%
La Palma 2+ goals
25%
La Palma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pozoblanco (draw refunded)
68%
La Palma (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozoblanco at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozoblanco attack 1.45 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

La Palma attack 0.88 + Pozoblanco defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pozoblanco scores more
51%
level
25%
La Palma scores more
24%

Pozoblanco at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pozoblanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
A. Diawara
26'
Diego VargasPenalty
36'
Arnau Roca
46'
Ángel Luque← Manolo Suárez
59'
Diego Rosado← Diego Luís
68'
Ángel García← Fran Gómez
68'
Manuel León← H. Adamou
68'
Carlos Moreno← Kilian Durán
75'
Zara← Javi Bernal
76'
Manu Picón← Cazorla
76'
Juan Martín← Moisés Aguilar
82'
Jesús Marín← Javi Vargas
82'
Carlos Rojas← Pinto
Pozoblanco
La
Juan Corrales
Corrales
Antonio Mesa
Mesa
Rafa Navarro
Navarro
Manolo Suárez
▼
Suárez
Pana
Pana
Andrés Pavón
Pavón
Diego Luís
▼
Luís
Moisés Aguilar
▼
Aguilar
Diego Vargas
⚽
Vargas
Pinto
▼
Pinto
Cazorla
▼
Cazorla
Jerry
Jerry
Kilian Durán
▼
Durán
Juan Luna
Luna
Arnau Roca
⚽
Roca
David García
García
H. Adamou
▼
Adamou
Migue Sánchez
Sánchez
Javi Vargas
▼
Vargas
Fran Gómez
▼
Gómez
Javi Bernal
▼
Bernal
A. Diawara
⚽
Diawara
Alberto Fernández
Manager: Alberto Fernández
68'▲Ángel García←▼Fran Gómez
68'▲Manuel León←▼H. Adamou
68'▲Carlos Moreno←▼Kilian Durán
75'▲Zara←▼Javi Bernal
82'▲Jesús Marín←▼Javi Vargas

Pozoblanco substitutes

GarcíaLeónMorenoZaraMarín
Dioni Arroyo
Manager: Dioni Arroyo
46'▲Ángel Luque←▼Manolo Suárez
59'▲Diego Rosado←▼Diego Luís
76'▲Manu Picón←▼Cazorla
76'▲Juan Martín←▼Moisés Aguilar
82'▲Carlos Rojas←▼Pinto

La Palma substitutes

LuqueRosadoPicónMartínRojas

Match Recap: Pozoblanco vs La Palma

Pozoblanco beat La Palma 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 16, 2025.

Goals: A. Diawara (14'), Diego Vargas (26' pen), Arnau Roca (36').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco in Pozoblanco.