Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pozoblanco vs Dos Hermanas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Pozoblanco
Pozoblanco
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Dos Hermanas
Dos Hermanas
12/3/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 12Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pozoblanco40%
×Draw25%
Dos Hermanas36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozoblanco
1.49
Dos Hermanas
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pozoblanco
1.45
Dos Hermanas
1.74

allows per match

Pozoblanco
1.05
Dos Hermanas
1.53

finishing

Pozoblanco+0.00on par
Dos Hermanas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozoblanco ↓

Dos Hermanas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pozoblanco or draw
64%
Pozoblanco or Dos Hermanas
75%
Draw or Dos Hermanas
60%

Winning margin

Pozoblanco wins by 2+
19%
Dos Hermanas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pozoblanco 1+ goals
77%
Pozoblanco 2+ goals
44%
Pozoblanco 3+ goals
19%
Dos Hermanas 1+ goals
75%
Dos Hermanas 2+ goals
41%
Dos Hermanas 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pozoblanco (draw refunded)
53%
Dos Hermanas (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozoblanco at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Dos Hermanas away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozoblanco attack 1.45 + Dos Hermanas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.49

Dos Hermanas attack 1.74 + Pozoblanco defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pozoblanco scores more
40%
level
25%
Dos Hermanas scores more
36%

Pozoblanco at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pozoblanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pozoblanco 3 – 4 Dos Hermanas

Dos Hermanas beat Pozoblanco 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco in Pozoblanco.