Pozoblanco 2–1 Córdoba II: Result & Stats

Pozoblanco

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Córdoba II

10/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 8Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Pozoblanco44%

×Draw27%

Córdoba II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PozoblancoExpected goals in this matchCórdoba II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.09

Pozoblanco

1.40

Córdoba II

1.09

Pozoblanco creates 28% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

1.45

creates per match

1.13

1.05

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Pozoblanco

1.45

Córdoba II

1.13

allows per match

Pozoblanco

1.05

Córdoba II

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pozoblanco+0.00on par

Córdoba II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozoblanco ↓

Córdoba II →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pozoblanco or draw

71%

Pozoblanco or Córdoba II

73%

Draw or Córdoba II

56%

Winning margin

Pozoblanco wins by 2+

21%

Córdoba II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pozoblanco 1+ goals

75%

Pozoblanco 2+ goals

41%

Pozoblanco 3+ goals

17%

Córdoba II 1+ goals

66%

Córdoba II 2+ goals

30%

Córdoba II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Pozoblanco (draw refunded)

60%

Córdoba II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pozoblanco at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Córdoba II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pozoblanco attack 1.45 + Córdoba II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Córdoba II attack 1.13 + Pozoblanco defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pozoblanco scores more

44%

level

27%

Córdoba II scores more

29%

Pozoblanco at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pozoblanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff