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Pozoblanco vs Conil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Pozoblanco
Pozoblanco
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Conil
Conil
4/26/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 32Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Pozoblanco51%
×Draw26%
Conil23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozoblanco
1.52
Conil
0.93

Pozoblanco creates 63% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Pozoblanco
1.45
Conil
0.81

allows per match

Pozoblanco
1.05
Conil
1.60

finishing

Pozoblanco+0.00on par
Conil+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozoblanco ↓

Conil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pozoblanco or draw
77%
Pozoblanco or Conil
74%
Draw or Conil
49%

Winning margin

Pozoblanco wins by 2+
26%
Conil wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pozoblanco 1+ goals
78%
Pozoblanco 2+ goals
45%
Pozoblanco 3+ goals
20%
Conil 1+ goals
61%
Conil 2+ goals
24%
Conil 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pozoblanco (draw refunded)
69%
Conil (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozoblanco at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Conil away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.60 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozoblanco attack 1.45 + Conil defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Conil attack 0.81 + Pozoblanco defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pozoblanco scores more
51%
level
26%
Conil scores more
23%

Pozoblanco at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pozoblanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pozoblanco vs Conil

Conil beat Pozoblanco 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco in Pozoblanco.