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Pozoblanco vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Pozoblanco
Pozoblanco
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
11/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 10Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Pozoblanco39%
×Draw29%
Ciudad de Lucena33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozoblanco
1.18
Ciudad de Lucena
1.06

Pozoblanco creates 11% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

creates per match

Pozoblanco
1.45
Ciudad de Lucena
1.06

allows per match

Pozoblanco
1.05
Ciudad de Lucena
0.90

finishing

Pozoblanco+0.00on par
Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozoblanco ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pozoblanco or draw
67%
Pozoblanco or Ciudad de Lucena
71%
Draw or Ciudad de Lucena
61%

Winning margin

Pozoblanco wins by 2+
16%
Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pozoblanco 1+ goals
69%
Pozoblanco 2+ goals
33%
Pozoblanco 3+ goals
12%
Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
65%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
29%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pozoblanco (draw refunded)
54%
Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozoblanco at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozoblanco attack 1.45 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + Pozoblanco defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pozoblanco scores more
39%
level
29%
Ciudad de Lucena scores more
33%

Pozoblanco at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pozoblanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pozoblanco 0 – 0 Ciudad de Lucena

Pozoblanco and Ciudad de Lucena drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco in Pozoblanco.