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Pozoblanco vs Ceuta II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Pozoblanco
Pozoblanco
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ceuta II
Ceuta II
3/23/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 26Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Pozoblanco48%
×Draw27%
Ceuta II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozoblanco
1.42
Ceuta II
0.94

Pozoblanco creates 51% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 82 away

creates per match

Pozoblanco
1.45
Ceuta II
0.82

allows per match

Pozoblanco
1.05
Ceuta II
1.40

finishing

Pozoblanco+0.00on par
Ceuta II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozoblanco ↓

Ceuta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pozoblanco or draw
75%
Pozoblanco or Ceuta II
73%
Draw or Ceuta II
52%

Winning margin

Pozoblanco wins by 2+
24%
Ceuta II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pozoblanco 1+ goals
76%
Pozoblanco 2+ goals
41%
Pozoblanco 3+ goals
17%
Ceuta II 1+ goals
61%
Ceuta II 2+ goals
24%
Ceuta II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pozoblanco (draw refunded)
66%
Ceuta II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozoblanco at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Ceuta II away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozoblanco attack 1.45 + Ceuta II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ceuta II attack 0.82 + Pozoblanco defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pozoblanco scores more
48%
level
27%
Ceuta II scores more
25%

Pozoblanco at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pozoblanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pozoblanco vs Ceuta II

Pozoblanco and Ceuta II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco in Pozoblanco.