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Pozoblanco vs Ceuta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Pozoblanco
Pozoblanco
CANC
22:00
Ceuta
Ceuta
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 37Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pozoblanco33%
×Draw30%
Ceuta37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozoblanco
1.02
Ceuta
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 15 away

creates per match

Pozoblanco
1.45
Ceuta
1.13

allows per match

Pozoblanco
1.05
Ceuta
0.60

finishing

Pozoblanco+0.00on par
Ceuta+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozoblanco ↓

Ceuta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Pozoblanco or draw
63%
Pozoblanco or Ceuta
70%
Draw or Ceuta
67%

Winning margin

Pozoblanco wins by 2+
13%
Ceuta wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pozoblanco 1+ goals
64%
Pozoblanco 2+ goals
27%
Pozoblanco 3+ goals
8%
Ceuta 1+ goals
66%
Ceuta 2+ goals
30%
Ceuta 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pozoblanco (draw refunded)
47%
Ceuta (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozoblanco at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Ceuta away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozoblanco attack 1.45 + Ceuta defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.02

Ceuta attack 1.13 + Pozoblanco defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pozoblanco scores more
33%
level
30%
Ceuta scores more
37%

Ceuta at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ceuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pozoblanco face Ceuta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 returns with Pozoblanco hosting Ceuta. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Pozoblanco host Ceuta at Estadio Municipal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.