Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Power Dynamos vs Nkana — Super League 2019

Power Dynamos
Power Dynamos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nkana
Nkana
12/7/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Levy Mwanawasa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Power Dynamos48%
×Draw30%
Nkana22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Power Dynamos
1.23
Nkana
0.72

Power Dynamos creates 71% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Power Dynamos
1.38
Nkana
0.82

allows per match

Power Dynamos
0.62
Nkana
1.07

finishing

Power Dynamos+0.00on par
Nkana+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Power Dynamos ↓

Nkana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Power Dynamos or draw
78%
Power Dynamos or Nkana
70%
Draw or Nkana
52%

Winning margin

Power Dynamos wins by 2+
22%
Nkana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Power Dynamos 1+ goals
71%
Power Dynamos 2+ goals
35%
Power Dynamos 3+ goals
13%
Nkana 1+ goals
51%
Nkana 2+ goals
16%
Nkana 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Power Dynamos (draw refunded)
69%
Nkana (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Power Dynamos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.62 · 110 matches

Nkana away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.07 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Power Dynamos attack 1.38 + Nkana defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nkana attack 0.82 + Power Dynamos defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Power Dynamos scores more
48%
level
30%
Nkana scores more
22%

Power Dynamos at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Power Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Power Dynamos vs Nkana

Nkana beat Power Dynamos 2-1 in Super League on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Levy Mwanawasa Stadium in Ndola.