Power Dynamos 1–0 Mutondo Stars: Result & Stats

Power Dynamos

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mutondo Stars

11/10/2024

Super League · Round 11Arthur Davies Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Power Dynamos52%

×Draw31%

Mutondo Stars18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Power DynamosExpected goals in this matchMutondo Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.57

Power Dynamos

1.20

Mutondo Stars

0.57

Power Dynamos creates 111% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 51 away

1.38

creates per match

0.53

0.62

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Power Dynamos

1.38

Mutondo Stars

0.53

allows per match

Power Dynamos

0.62

Mutondo Stars

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Power Dynamos+0.00on par

Mutondo Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Power Dynamos ↓

Mutondo Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Power Dynamos or draw

82%

Power Dynamos or Mutondo Stars

69%

Draw or Mutondo Stars

48%

Winning margin

Power Dynamos wins by 2+

23%

Mutondo Stars wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Power Dynamos 1+ goals

70%

Power Dynamos 2+ goals

34%

Power Dynamos 3+ goals

12%

Mutondo Stars 1+ goals

43%

Mutondo Stars 2+ goals

11%

Mutondo Stars 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Power Dynamos (draw refunded)

75%

Mutondo Stars (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Power Dynamos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.62 · 110 matches

Mutondo Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Power Dynamos attack 1.38 + Mutondo Stars defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.20

Mutondo Stars attack 0.53 + Power Dynamos defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Power Dynamos scores more

52%

level

31%

Mutondo Stars scores more

18%

Power Dynamos at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Power Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff