Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Power Dynamos vs Kabwe Warriors — Super League 2019

Power Dynamos
Power Dynamos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Kabwe Warriors
Kabwe Warriors
10/27/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Arthur Davies Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Power Dynamos45%
×Draw31%
Kabwe Warriors24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Power Dynamos
1.15
Kabwe Warriors
0.76

Power Dynamos creates 51% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Power Dynamos
1.38
Kabwe Warriors
0.90

allows per match

Power Dynamos
0.62
Kabwe Warriors
0.92

finishing

Power Dynamos+0.00on par
Kabwe Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Power Dynamos ↓

Kabwe Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Power Dynamos or draw
76%
Power Dynamos or Kabwe Warriors
69%
Draw or Kabwe Warriors
55%

Winning margin

Power Dynamos wins by 2+
19%
Kabwe Warriors wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Power Dynamos 1+ goals
68%
Power Dynamos 2+ goals
32%
Power Dynamos 3+ goals
11%
Kabwe Warriors 1+ goals
53%
Kabwe Warriors 2+ goals
18%
Kabwe Warriors 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Power Dynamos (draw refunded)
65%
Kabwe Warriors (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Power Dynamos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.62 · 110 matches

Kabwe Warriors away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.92 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Power Dynamos attack 1.38 + Kabwe Warriors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.15

Kabwe Warriors attack 0.90 + Power Dynamos defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Power Dynamos scores more
45%
level
31%
Kabwe Warriors scores more
24%

Power Dynamos at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Power Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Power Dynamos vs Kabwe Warriors

Power Dynamos beat Kabwe Warriors 2-1 in Super League on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Arthur Davies Stadium in Kitwe.