Power Dynamos 1–0 African Stars: Result & Stats

Power Dynamos

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

African Stars

8/26/2023

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundLevy Mwanawasa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Power Dynamos58%

×Draw33%

African Stars9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Power DynamosExpected goals in this matchAfrican Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.28

Power Dynamos

1.13

African Stars

0.28

Power Dynamos creates 304% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

0.00

0.57

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Power Dynamos

1.00

African Stars

0.00

allows per match

Power Dynamos

0.57

African Stars

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Power Dynamos+0.00on par

African Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under83
Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No83
Yes17

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Power Dynamos ↓

African Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–024%

0–17%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–028%

1–18%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (28%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

76%24%1.5

41%59%2.5

17%83%3.5

5%95%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Power Dynamos or draw

91%

Power Dynamos or African Stars

67%

Draw or African Stars

42%

Winning margin

Power Dynamos wins by 2+

26%

African Stars wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Power Dynamos 1+ goals

68%

Power Dynamos 2+ goals

31%

Power Dynamos 3+ goals

11%

African Stars 1+ goals

24%

African Stars 2+ goals

3%

African Stars 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Power Dynamos (draw refunded)

86%

African Stars (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

9%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Power Dynamos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

African Stars away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Power Dynamos attack 1.00 + African Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

African Stars attack 0.00 + Power Dynamos defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Power Dynamos scores more

58%

level

33%

African Stars scores more

9%

Power Dynamos at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Power Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff