Povltava FA 1–4 Příbram: Result & Stats

Povltava FA

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Příbram

11/10/2024

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 14Stadion Štěchovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Povltava FA29%

×Draw24%

Příbram47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Povltava FAExpected goals in this matchPříbram

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.74

Povltava FA

1.32

Příbram

1.74

Příbram creates 32% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 15 away

1.44

creates per match

2.00

1.48

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Povltava FA

1.44

Příbram

2.00

allows per match

Povltava FA

1.48

Příbram

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Povltava FA+0.00on par

Příbram+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Povltava FA ↓

Příbram →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Povltava FA or draw

53%

Povltava FA or Příbram

76%

Draw or Příbram

71%

Winning margin

Povltava FA wins by 2+

13%

Příbram wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Povltava FA 1+ goals

73%

Povltava FA 2+ goals

38%

Povltava FA 3+ goals

15%

Příbram 1+ goals

82%

Příbram 2+ goals

52%

Příbram 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Povltava FA (draw refunded)

38%

Příbram (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Povltava FA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.48 · 62 matches

Příbram away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Povltava FA attack 1.44 + Příbram defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Příbram attack 2.00 + Povltava FA defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Povltava FA scores more

29%

level

24%

Příbram scores more

47%

Příbram at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Příbram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff