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Povltava FA vs Přeštice — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Povltava FA
Povltava FA
CANC
15:00
Přeštice
Přeštice
9/7/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 5Stadion Štěchovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Povltava FA46%
×Draw24%
Přeštice30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Povltava FA
1.69
Přeštice
1.32

Povltava FA creates 28% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 30 away

creates per match

Povltava FA
1.44
Přeštice
1.17

allows per match

Povltava FA
1.48
Přeštice
1.93

finishing

Povltava FA+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Povltava FA ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Povltava FA or draw
70%
Povltava FA or Přeštice
76%
Draw or Přeštice
54%

Winning margin

Povltava FA wins by 2+
24%
Přeštice wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Povltava FA 1+ goals
82%
Povltava FA 2+ goals
50%
Povltava FA 3+ goals
24%
Přeštice 1+ goals
73%
Přeštice 2+ goals
38%
Přeštice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Povltava FA (draw refunded)
61%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Povltava FA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.48 · 62 matches

Přeštice away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Povltava FA attack 1.44 + Přeštice defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.69

Přeštice attack 1.17 + Povltava FA defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Povltava FA scores more
46%
level
24%
Přeštice scores more
30%

Povltava FA at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Povltava FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Povltava FA host Přeštice

September 7, 2024: Povltava FA take on Přeštice in 3. liga - CFL A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Povltava FA host Přeštice at Stadion Štěchovice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.