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Povltava FA vs Bohemians 1905 II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Povltava FA
Povltava FA
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Bohemians 1905 II
Bohemians 1905 II
3/16/20253. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 19Stadion Štěchovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Povltava FA42%
×Draw24%
Bohemians 1905 II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Povltava FA
1.65
Bohemians 1905 II
1.48

Povltava FA creates 11% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 61 away

creates per match

Povltava FA
1.44
Bohemians 1905 II
1.48

allows per match

Povltava FA
1.48
Bohemians 1905 II
1.85

finishing

Povltava FA+0.00on par
Bohemians 1905 II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Povltava FA ↓

Bohemians 1905 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Povltava FA or draw
65%
Povltava FA or Bohemians 1905 II
76%
Draw or Bohemians 1905 II
58%

Winning margin

Povltava FA wins by 2+
21%
Bohemians 1905 II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Povltava FA 1+ goals
81%
Povltava FA 2+ goals
49%
Povltava FA 3+ goals
23%
Bohemians 1905 II 1+ goals
77%
Bohemians 1905 II 2+ goals
43%
Bohemians 1905 II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Povltava FA (draw refunded)
55%
Bohemians 1905 II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Povltava FA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.48 · 62 matches

Bohemians 1905 II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.85 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Povltava FA attack 1.44 + Bohemians 1905 II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.65

Bohemians 1905 II attack 1.48 + Povltava FA defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Povltava FA scores more
42%
level
24%
Bohemians 1905 II scores more
35%

Povltava FA at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Povltava FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Povltava FA vs Bohemians 1905 II

Bohemians 1905 II beat Povltava FA 3-2 in 3. liga - CFL A on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Štěchovice in Štěchovice.