Považská Bystrica 4–2 TEMPO Partizánske

Považská Bystrica

FT

4 – 2

TEMPO Partizánske

11/17/2021

3. liga - West · West - 13Futbalový štadión Strážov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Považská Bystrica77%

×Draw14%

TEMPO Partizánske9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Považská BystricaExpected goals in this matchTEMPO Partizánske

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.78

0.85

Považská Bystrica

2.78

TEMPO Partizánske

0.85

Považská Bystrica creates 227% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 17 away

2.91

creates per match

1.00

0.70

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Považská Bystrica

2.91

TEMPO Partizánske

1.00

allows per match

Považská Bystrica

0.70

TEMPO Partizánske

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

TEMPO Partizánske+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

TEMPO Partizánske →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw

91%

Považská Bystrica or TEMPO Partizánske

86%

Draw or TEMPO Partizánske

23%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+

56%

TEMPO Partizánske wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals

94%

Považská Bystrica 2+ goals

76%

Považská Bystrica 3+ goals

51%

TEMPO Partizánske 1+ goals

57%

TEMPO Partizánske 2+ goals

21%

TEMPO Partizánske 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)

90%

TEMPO Partizánske (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

TEMPO Partizánske away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 2.91 + TEMPO Partizánske defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.78

TEMPO Partizánske attack 1.00 + Považská Bystrica defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more

77%

level

14%

TEMPO Partizánske scores more

9%

Považská Bystrica at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff