Považská Bystrica 1–3 Slovan Bratislava II

Považská Bystrica

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Slovan Bratislava II

D. Rapavý 90+1'

T. Balko 90+5'

M. Kušnír 87'

M. Mateas 58'

7/27/2024

2. liga · Round 1Štadión MŠK Považská Bystrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Považská Bystrica54%

×Draw22%

Slovan Bratislava II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Považská BystricaExpected goals in this matchSlovan Bratislava II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.21

Považská Bystrica

1.94

Slovan Bratislava II

1.21

Považská Bystrica creates 60% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 94 away

1.81

creates per match

1.04

1.38

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Považská Bystrica

1.81

Slovan Bratislava II

1.04

allows per match

Považská Bystrica

1.38

Slovan Bratislava II

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Slovan Bratislava II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

Slovan Bratislava II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw

76%

Považská Bystrica or Slovan Bratislava II

78%

Draw or Slovan Bratislava II

46%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+

31%

Slovan Bratislava II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals

86%

Považská Bystrica 2+ goals

58%

Považská Bystrica 3+ goals

30%

Slovan Bratislava II 1+ goals

70%

Slovan Bratislava II 2+ goals

34%

Slovan Bratislava II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)

70%

Slovan Bratislava II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

Slovan Bratislava II away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.07 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 1.81 + Slovan Bratislava II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.94

Slovan Bratislava II attack 1.04 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more

54%

level

22%

Slovan Bratislava II scores more

24%

Považská Bystrica at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

D. Laktionov

44'

M. Marko

46'

S. Pagáč← M. Matejčík

46'

D. Rapavý← T. Krasňan

58'

63'

63'

73'

81'

81'

85'

87'

87'

87'

90+1'

90+1'

T. Balko← D. Laktionov

90+1'

D. Rapavý

90+5'

T. Balko

Považská

Slovan

1

Hrdina

2

▼

Tóth

14

Marušin

11

▼

Hornyák

6

Habodasz

17

⚽

Kušnír

8

▼

Marko

20

Mišovič

21

Boledovič

7

⚽

▼

Mateas

13

▼

73

23

12

16

20

▼

Matejčík

11

Sloboda

7

Jánošík

17

▼

Zemko

77

Tancík

27

▼

Boris

13

▼

Krasňan

Manager: P. Jakuš

46'▲S. Pagáč←▼M. Matejčík

46'▲D. Rapavý←▼T. Krasňan

63'▲A. Cisár←▼R. Zemko

63'▲P. Jakubík←▼M. Boris

Považská Bystrica substitutes

18Pagáč9Rapavý8Cisár24Jakubík4Mitaš14Solík5Kubala21Minár

Manager: V. Gála

73'▲M. Mičák←▼A. Tóth

81'▲A. Maroš←▼G. Hornyák

81'▲S. Murár←▼M. Mateas

90+1'▲D. Murar←▼M. Marko

90+1'▲T. Balko←▼D. Laktionov

Slovan Bratislava II substitutes

15Mičák10Maroš18Murár5Murar12Balko3Baláž4Szalma30Mikoláš9Ivanics

2. liga: Považská Bystrica 1–3 Slovan Bratislava II

Slovan Bratislava II beat Považská Bystrica 3-1 in 2. liga on July 27, 2024.

Goals: M. Mateas (58'), M. Kušnír (87'), D. Rapavý (90+1'), T. Balko (90+5').

The match was played at Štadión MŠK Považská Bystrica in Považská Bystrica.

Považská Bystrica vs Slovan Bratislava II — 2. liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. liga: Považská Bystrica 1–3 Slovan Bratislava II