Považská Bystrica 3–3 Slavoj Trebišov

Považská Bystrica

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Slavoj Trebišov

3/18/2023

2. liga · Round 21Štadión MŠK Považská Bystrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Považská Bystrica54%

×Draw22%

Slavoj Trebišov23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Považská BystricaExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Trebišov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.17

Považská Bystrica

1.91

Slavoj Trebišov

1.17

Považská Bystrica creates 63% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 69 away

1.81

creates per match

0.97

1.38

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Považská Bystrica

1.81

Slavoj Trebišov

0.97

allows per match

Považská Bystrica

1.38

Slavoj Trebišov

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw

77%

Považská Bystrica or Slavoj Trebišov

78%

Draw or Slavoj Trebišov

46%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+

31%

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals

85%

Považská Bystrica 2+ goals

57%

Považská Bystrica 3+ goals

30%

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals

69%

Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals

33%

Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)

70%

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 1.81 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.91

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.97 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more

54%

level

22%

Slavoj Trebišov scores more

23%

Považská Bystrica at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff