Považská Bystrica 3–1 Petržalka: Result & Stats

Považská Bystrica

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Petržalka

8/31/2024

2. liga · Round 6Štadión MŠK Považská Bystrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Považská Bystrica45%

×Draw24%

Petržalka31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Považská BystricaExpected goals in this matchPetržalka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.32

Považská Bystrica

1.63

Petržalka

1.32

Považská Bystrica creates 23% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 96 away

1.81

creates per match

1.26

1.38

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Považská Bystrica

1.81

Petržalka

1.26

allows per match

Považská Bystrica

1.38

Petržalka

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Petržalka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

Petržalka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw

69%

Považská Bystrica or Petržalka

76%

Draw or Petržalka

55%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+

23%

Petržalka wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals

80%

Považská Bystrica 2+ goals

48%

Považská Bystrica 3+ goals

22%

Petržalka 1+ goals

73%

Petržalka 2+ goals

38%

Petržalka 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)

59%

Petržalka (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

Petržalka away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.45 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 1.81 + Petržalka defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.63

Petržalka attack 1.26 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more

45%

level

24%

Petržalka scores more

31%

Považská Bystrica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff