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Považská Bystrica vs Nové Mesto nad Váhom — 3. liga - West 2020

Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
CANC
14:00
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
3/21/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 17Mestské športové kluby Považská Bystrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Považská Bystrica69%
×Draw18%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Považská Bystrica
2.33
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
0.89

Považská Bystrica creates 162% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 54 away

creates per match

Považská Bystrica
2.91
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.07

allows per match

Považská Bystrica
0.70
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.76

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par
Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

Nové Mesto nad Váhom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw
87%
Považská Bystrica or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
82%
Draw or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
31%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
46%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
90%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
67%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
41%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals
59%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals
22%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
84%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 2.91 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.33

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.07 + Považská Bystrica defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more
69%
level
18%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more
13%

Považská Bystrica at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Považská Bystrica host Nové Mesto nad Váhom

March 21, 2021: Považská Bystrica take on Nové Mesto nad Váhom in 3. liga - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Považská Bystrica host Nové Mesto nad Váhom at Mestské športové kluby Považská Bystrica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.