Považská Bystrica 2–2 Liptovský Mikuláš

Považská Bystrica

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Liptovský Mikuláš

M. Boris 19'

M. Vaclav 11'

S. Kucharik 89'

M. Franko 62'

8/30/2025

2. liga · Round 6Štadión MŠK Považská Bystrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Považská Bystrica43%

×Draw23%

Liptovský Mikuláš33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Považská BystricaExpected goals in this matchLiptovský Mikuláš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.48

Považská Bystrica

1.72

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.48

Považská Bystrica creates 16% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 73 away

1.81

creates per match

1.59

1.38

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Považská Bystrica

1.81

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.59

allows per match

Považská Bystrica

1.38

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

Liptovský Mikuláš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw

67%

Považská Bystrica or Liptovský Mikuláš

77%

Draw or Liptovský Mikuláš

57%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+

23%

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals

82%

Považská Bystrica 2+ goals

51%

Považská Bystrica 3+ goals

25%

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals

77%

Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals

43%

Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)

57%

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

Liptovský Mikuláš away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.62 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 1.81 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.72

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.59 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more

43%

level

23%

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more

33%

Považská Bystrica at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

M. Vaclav

19'

M. Boris

46'

E. Okonji← L. Laura

46'

S. Micuda← A. Macejko

50'

T. Congrady

56'

E. Okonji

61'

D. Laktionov←

62'

M. Franko

64'

R. Zemko← S. Misik

64'

A. Cisar← T. Congrady

73'

M. Slaninka← P. Majercik

74'

S. Kucharik

75'

M. Vaclav

76'

F. Liszka← A. Sloboda

81'

85'

85'

88'

88'

88'

89'

Považská

Liptovský

30

Slancik

7

▼

Macejko

8

Gerat

21

⚽

Kucharik

20

▼

11

18

10

19

▼

Laura

9

⚽

▼

27

1

16

23

4

⚽

Vaclav

20

Matejcik

6

▼

Misik

11

▼

Sloboda

27

⚽

Boris

22

▼

Bozik

77

Tancik

13

▼

Congrady

Manager: Peter Jakus

64'▲R. Zemko←▼S. Misik

64'▲A. Cisar←▼T. Congrady

76'▲F. Liszka←▼A. Sloboda

85'▲A. Celko←▼R. Bozik

Považská Bystrica substitutes

19Celko18Liszka12Bastek5Kubala17Zemko10Cisar24Guncaga73Bastek

Manager: Marek Petrus

46'▲E. Okonji←▼L. Laura

46'▲S. Micuda←▼A. Macejko

61'▲D. Laktionov←▼—

73'▲M. Slaninka←▼P. Majercik

88'▲F. Mraz←▼M. Franko

Liptovský Mikuláš substitutes

1Pereganets17Okonji4Slaninka6Micuda12Mraz23Laktionov14Pecarka28Piter-Bucko22Jurco