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Považská Bystrica vs Dolný Kubín — 2. liga 2019

Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Dolný Kubín
Dolný Kubín
9/2/20232. liga2. liga · Round 6Štadión MŠK Považská Bystrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Považská Bystrica63%
×Draw20%
Dolný Kubín17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Považská Bystrica
2.19
Dolný Kubín
1.04

Považská Bystrica creates 111% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 30 away

creates per match

Považská Bystrica
1.81
Dolný Kubín
0.70

allows per match

Považská Bystrica
1.38
Dolný Kubín
2.57

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par
Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

Dolný Kubín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw
83%
Považská Bystrica or Dolný Kubín
80%
Draw or Dolný Kubín
37%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
40%
Dolný Kubín wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
89%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
64%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
37%
Dolný Kubín 1+ goals
65%
Dolný Kubín 2+ goals
28%
Dolný Kubín 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
79%
Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 1.81 + Dolný Kubín defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.19

Dolný Kubín attack 0.70 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more
63%
level
20%
Dolný Kubín scores more
17%

Považská Bystrica at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Považská Bystrica vs Dolný Kubín

Považská Bystrica beat Dolný Kubín 4-3 in 2. liga on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión MŠK Považská Bystrica in Považská Bystrica.