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Pouso Alegre vs Tombense — Mineiro - 1 2020

Pouso Alegre
Pouso Alegre
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Tombense
Tombense
3/11/2023Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · Troféu Inconfidência - Semi-finalsEstádio Municipal Irmão Gino Maria Rossi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Pouso Alegre37%
×Draw26%
Tombense37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pouso Alegre
1.30
Tombense
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 42 away

creates per match

Pouso Alegre
1.39
Tombense
1.12

allows per match

Pouso Alegre
1.48
Tombense
1.21

finishing

Pouso Alegre+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pouso Alegre ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pouso Alegre or draw
63%
Pouso Alegre or Tombense
74%
Draw or Tombense
63%

Winning margin

Pouso Alegre wins by 2+
16%
Tombense wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pouso Alegre 1+ goals
73%
Pouso Alegre 2+ goals
37%
Pouso Alegre 3+ goals
14%
Tombense 1+ goals
73%
Tombense 2+ goals
37%
Tombense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pouso Alegre (draw refunded)
50%
Tombense (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pouso Alegre at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Tombense away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pouso Alegre attack 1.39 + Tombense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Tombense attack 1.12 + Pouso Alegre defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pouso Alegre scores more
37%
level
26%
Tombense scores more
37%

Pouso Alegre at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pouso Alegre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pouso Alegre vs Tombense

Pouso Alegre and Tombense drew 2-2 in Mineiro - 1 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Irmão Gino Maria Rossi in Pouso Alegre, Minas Gerais.