Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pouso Alegre vs Nacional AC MG — Mineiro - 2 2026

Pouso Alegre
Pouso Alegre
FT
1 – 1
Nacional AC MG
Nacional AC MG
11/28/2020Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Quadrangular - 6Estádio Municipal Irmão Gino Maria Rossi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pouso Alegre45%
×Draw29%
Nacional AC MG26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pouso Alegre
1.25
Nacional AC MG
0.89

Pouso Alegre creates 40% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pouso Alegre
1.38
Nacional AC MG
1.03

allows per match

Pouso Alegre
0.75
Nacional AC MG
1.12

finishing

Pouso Alegre+0.00on par
Nacional AC MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pouso Alegre ↓

Nacional AC MG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Pouso Alegre or draw
74%
Pouso Alegre or Nacional AC MG
71%
Draw or Nacional AC MG
55%

Winning margin

Pouso Alegre wins by 2+
20%
Nacional AC MG wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pouso Alegre 1+ goals
71%
Pouso Alegre 2+ goals
36%
Pouso Alegre 3+ goals
13%
Nacional AC MG 1+ goals
59%
Nacional AC MG 2+ goals
22%
Nacional AC MG 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pouso Alegre (draw refunded)
63%
Nacional AC MG (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pouso Alegre at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Nacional AC MG away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pouso Alegre attack 1.38 + Nacional AC MG defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nacional AC MG attack 1.03 + Pouso Alegre defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pouso Alegre scores more
45%
level
29%
Nacional AC MG scores more
26%

Pouso Alegre at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pouso Alegre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pouso Alegre vs Nacional AC MG

Pouso Alegre and Nacional AC MG drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 2 on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Irmão Gino Maria Rossi in Pouso Alegre, Minas Gerais.