Pouso Alegre 5–2 Itabirito: Result & Stats

Pouso Alegre

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Itabirito

3/16/2024

Mineiro - 1 · Troféu Inconfidência - Semi-finalsEstádio Municipal Irmão Gino Maria Rossi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pouso Alegre40%

×Draw24%

Itabirito35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pouso AlegreExpected goals in this matchItabirito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.43

Pouso Alegre

1.54

Itabirito

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 13 away

1.39

creates per match

1.38

1.48

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Pouso Alegre

1.39

Itabirito

1.38

allows per match

Pouso Alegre

1.48

Itabirito

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pouso Alegre+0.00on par

Itabirito+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pouso Alegre ↓

Itabirito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Pouso Alegre or draw

65%

Pouso Alegre or Itabirito

76%

Draw or Itabirito

60%

Winning margin

Pouso Alegre wins by 2+

20%

Itabirito wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Pouso Alegre 1+ goals

79%

Pouso Alegre 2+ goals

45%

Pouso Alegre 3+ goals

20%

Itabirito 1+ goals

76%

Itabirito 2+ goals

42%

Itabirito 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Pouso Alegre (draw refunded)

53%

Itabirito (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pouso Alegre at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Itabirito away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pouso Alegre attack 1.39 + Itabirito defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.54

Itabirito attack 1.38 + Pouso Alegre defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pouso Alegre scores more

40%

level

24%

Itabirito scores more

35%

Pouso Alegre at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pouso Alegre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff