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Pouso Alegre vs Cruzeiro — Mineiro - 1 2020

Pouso Alegre
Pouso Alegre
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiroadvanced
2/21/2026Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · Championship - Semi-finalsEstadio Do Manduzao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Pouso Alegre31%
×Draw25%
Cruzeiro44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pouso Alegre
1.22
Cruzeiro
1.50

Cruzeiro creates 23% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 39 away

creates per match

Pouso Alegre
1.39
Cruzeiro
1.51

allows per match

Pouso Alegre
1.48
Cruzeiro
1.05

finishing

Pouso Alegre+0.00on par
Cruzeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pouso Alegre ↓

Cruzeiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pouso Alegre or draw
56%
Pouso Alegre or Cruzeiro
75%
Draw or Cruzeiro
69%

Winning margin

Pouso Alegre wins by 2+
13%
Cruzeiro wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pouso Alegre 1+ goals
70%
Pouso Alegre 2+ goals
34%
Pouso Alegre 3+ goals
12%
Cruzeiro 1+ goals
78%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
44%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Pouso Alegre (draw refunded)
41%
Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pouso Alegre at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pouso Alegre attack 1.39 + Cruzeiro defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.22

Cruzeiro attack 1.51 + Pouso Alegre defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pouso Alegre scores more
31%
level
25%
Cruzeiro scores more
44%

Cruzeiro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pouso Alegre vs Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro beat Pouso Alegre 2-1 in Mineiro - 1 on February 21, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Do Manduzao in Pouso Alegre.