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Pöttinger Grieskirchen vs St. Valentin — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
Pöttinger Grieskirchen
FT
1 – 4
St. Valentin
St. Valentin
9/12/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 6Fröling-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Pöttinger Grieskirchen40%
×Draw22%
St. Valentin38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
1.83
St. Valentin
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 73 away

creates per match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
1.61
St. Valentin
1.40

allows per match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
2.14
St. Valentin
2.04

finishing

Pöttinger Grieskirchen+0.00on par
St. Valentin+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pöttinger Grieskirchen ↓

St. Valentin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Pöttinger Grieskirchen or draw
62%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen or St. Valentin
78%
Draw or St. Valentin
60%

Winning margin

Pöttinger Grieskirchen wins by 2+
21%
St. Valentin wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 1+ goals
84%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen 2+ goals
54%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3+ goals
28%
St. Valentin 1+ goals
83%
St. Valentin 2+ goals
53%
St. Valentin 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Pöttinger Grieskirchen (draw refunded)
52%
St. Valentin (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pöttinger Grieskirchen at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

St. Valentin away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen attack 1.61 + St. Valentin defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.83

St. Valentin attack 1.40 + Pöttinger Grieskirchen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pöttinger Grieskirchen scores more
40%
level
22%
St. Valentin scores more
38%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pöttinger Grieskirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pöttinger Grieskirchen vs St. Valentin

St. Valentin beat Pöttinger Grieskirchen 4-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Fröling-Stadion in Grieskirchen.