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Pöttinger Grieskirchen vs Mondsee — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
Pöttinger Grieskirchen
FT
3 – 0
Mondsee
Mondsee
10/30/2021Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 13Fröling-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Pöttinger Grieskirchen35%
×Draw22%
Mondsee43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
1.72
Mondsee
1.93

Mondsee creates 12% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 90 away

creates per match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
1.61
Mondsee
1.71

allows per match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
2.14
Mondsee
1.83

finishing

Pöttinger Grieskirchen+0.00on par
Mondsee+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pöttinger Grieskirchen ↓

Mondsee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Pöttinger Grieskirchen or draw
57%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen or Mondsee
78%
Draw or Mondsee
65%

Winning margin

Pöttinger Grieskirchen wins by 2+
18%
Mondsee wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 1+ goals
82%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen 2+ goals
51%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3+ goals
25%
Mondsee 1+ goals
85%
Mondsee 2+ goals
57%
Mondsee 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Pöttinger Grieskirchen (draw refunded)
45%
Mondsee (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pöttinger Grieskirchen at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

Mondsee away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.83 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen attack 1.61 + Mondsee defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

Mondsee attack 1.71 + Pöttinger Grieskirchen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pöttinger Grieskirchen scores more
35%
level
22%
Mondsee scores more
43%

Mondsee at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mondsee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pöttinger Grieskirchen vs Mondsee

Pöttinger Grieskirchen beat Mondsee 3-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Fröling-Stadion in Grieskirchen.