Pöttinger Grieskirchen vs Friedburg / Pöndorf

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

CANC

17:00

Friedburg / Pöndorf

4/20/2021

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 16Fröling-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Pöttinger Grieskirchen36%

×Draw21%

Friedburg / Pöndorf43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pöttinger GrieskirchenExpected goals in this matchFriedburg / Pöndorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

2.00

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

1.82

Friedburg / Pöndorf

2.00

Friedburg / Pöndorf creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 89 away

1.61

creates per match

1.85

2.14

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

1.61

Friedburg / Pöndorf

1.85

allows per match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

2.14

Friedburg / Pöndorf

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pöttinger Grieskirchen+0.00on par

Friedburg / Pöndorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pöttinger Grieskirchen ↓

Friedburg / Pöndorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Pöttinger Grieskirchen or draw

57%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen or Friedburg / Pöndorf

79%

Draw or Friedburg / Pöndorf

64%

Winning margin

Pöttinger Grieskirchen wins by 2+

18%

Friedburg / Pöndorf wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 1+ goals

84%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 2+ goals

54%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3+ goals

27%

Friedburg / Pöndorf 1+ goals

86%

Friedburg / Pöndorf 2+ goals

59%

Friedburg / Pöndorf 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Pöttinger Grieskirchen (draw refunded)

46%

Friedburg / Pöndorf (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pöttinger Grieskirchen at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

Friedburg / Pöndorf away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen attack 1.61 + Friedburg / Pöndorf defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.82

Friedburg / Pöndorf attack 1.85 + Pöttinger Grieskirchen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pöttinger Grieskirchen scores more

36%

level

21%

Friedburg / Pöndorf scores more

43%

Friedburg / Pöndorf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Friedburg / Pöndorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff