Pöttinger Grieskirchen vs Donau Linz

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

CANC

13:00

Donau Linz

11/14/2020

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 15Fröling-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Pöttinger Grieskirchen52%

×Draw20%

Donau Linz27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pöttinger GrieskirchenExpected goals in this matchDonau Linz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.58

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

2.24

Donau Linz

1.58

Pöttinger Grieskirchen creates 42% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 30 away

1.61

creates per match

1.03

2.14

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

1.61

Donau Linz

1.03

allows per match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

2.14

Donau Linz

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pöttinger Grieskirchen+0.00on par

Donau Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pöttinger Grieskirchen ↓

Donau Linz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Pöttinger Grieskirchen or draw

73%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen or Donau Linz

80%

Draw or Donau Linz

48%

Winning margin

Pöttinger Grieskirchen wins by 2+

32%

Donau Linz wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 1+ goals

89%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 2+ goals

65%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3+ goals

38%

Donau Linz 1+ goals

79%

Donau Linz 2+ goals

47%

Donau Linz 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Pöttinger Grieskirchen (draw refunded)

66%

Donau Linz (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pöttinger Grieskirchen at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

Donau Linz away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen attack 1.61 + Donau Linz defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.24

Donau Linz attack 1.03 + Pöttinger Grieskirchen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pöttinger Grieskirchen scores more

52%

level

20%

Donau Linz scores more

27%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pöttinger Grieskirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff