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Potros Uaem vs Tampico Madero — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Potros Uaem
Potros Uaem
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
2/9/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 6Estadio Universitario Alberto Chivo Córdoba (Toluca de Lerdo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Potros Uaem40%
×Draw29%
Tampico Madero31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Potros Uaem
1.17
Tampico Madero
0.99

Potros Uaem creates 18% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 63 away

creates per match

Potros Uaem
1.17
Tampico Madero
0.89

allows per match

Potros Uaem
1.09
Tampico Madero
1.16

finishing

Potros Uaem+0.00on par
Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Potros Uaem ↓

Tampico Madero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Potros Uaem or draw
69%
Potros Uaem or Tampico Madero
71%
Draw or Tampico Madero
60%

Winning margin

Potros Uaem wins by 2+
17%
Tampico Madero wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Potros Uaem 1+ goals
69%
Potros Uaem 2+ goals
33%
Potros Uaem 3+ goals
11%
Tampico Madero 1+ goals
63%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
26%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Potros Uaem (draw refunded)
56%
Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Potros Uaem at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Tampico Madero away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Potros Uaem attack 1.17 + Tampico Madero defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Tampico Madero attack 0.89 + Potros Uaem defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Potros Uaem scores more
40%
level
29%
Tampico Madero scores more
31%

Potros Uaem at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Potros Uaem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Potros Uaem 1–1 Tampico Madero

Potros Uaem and Tampico Madero drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario Alberto Chivo Córdoba (Toluca de Lerdo).